• The Seahawks offense has been inconsistent: Seattle’s spike weeks on offense appear to have little to do with simple defensive opponents, as two of their worst video games have come in opposition to the bottom-tier defenses of the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams, and two of their greatest video games on offense got here in opposition to the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.
• Stafford to return with a bang: The Rams QB has been among the many easiest within the NFL from a clear pocket, rating towards the highest of the league in anticipated factors added (EPA) and PFF grade when he is in a position to throw with out strain. Dealing with this Seahawks move rush, he ought to have loads of clear pockets to work with and the time to choose aside this secondary, as he did in Week 1.
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Estimated studying time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in a number of markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, and many others. — the place they often get oriented by following a bottom-up method: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
Nevertheless, the purpose on this house is to observe a top-down method. We are going to take a deep dive into one sport per week and take into account how bettors can greatest apply a particular principle on a workforce, participant or pattern and capitalize on it within the betting market.
Some bets will observe extra conventional markets, however we’ll extra typically look to maximise our upside within the multitude of various markets supplied by sportsbooks.
Finest Bets
• Allow us to begin by trying on the base charges and the way the groups stack up essentially. On offense, the groups seem related of their capacity to maneuver the ball, with the Rams fielding the marginally worse protection.
• However included within the Rams’ quantity here’s a pattern — albeit a small pattern — of performs with out Matthew Stafford at quarterback. If we glance solely on the performs with the Rams’ starter within the lineup, the workforce jumps almost 0.2 factors (equal to 2 factors per sport) of their offensive effectivity, rendering them a clearly higher offense this season.
• Additional, if we have a look at the Seattle Seahawks sport by sport and observe the pattern line, we see that the offense has been extraordinarily inconsistent. Their spike weeks on offense appear to have little to do with simple defensive opponents, as two of their worst video games have come in opposition to the bottom-tier defenses of the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams, and two of their greatest video games on offense got here in opposition to the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.
• With quarterback Matthew Stafford on the helm, the Rams have been remarkably constant — league-average or higher in each sport.
• The Rams’ most profitable video games have come in opposition to groups with weak pass-rush models, such because the Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals. This leads us to our matchup angle for this sport.
Matchup Angle
• Given Matthew Stafford‘s traits as a restricted scrambler, we wish to be betting on Stafford in spots the place he has the situational benefit, notably in opposition to weak move rushes. It’s no coincidence that Stafford has had his greatest video games in opposition to weak move rushes and his worst in opposition to among the extra dominant ones.
• Over the past 5 weeks of the season, the Seahawks rank towards the underside of the league in strain fee, particularly quick-pressure fee, rating within the backside quartile in each classes.
• Stafford has been among the many easiest within the NFL from a clear pocket, rating towards the highest of the league in anticipated factors added (EPA) and PFF grade when he is in a position to throw with out strain. Dealing with this Seahawks move rush, he ought to have loads of clear pockets to work with and the time to choose aside this secondary, as he did in Week 1.
• With a wholesome Stafford, the Rams will wish to air it out in a sport that would grow to be a shootout. I’m completely satisfied to put the factors and wager on Stafford to outduel Geno Smith and the Seahawks.
