This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat e-newsletter. To learn the complete e-newsletter, click on right here. And subscribe to get it commonly in your inbox.
TORONTO — Any day now, the Blue Jays will take their first steps in a unique route.
That may be again towards the center, attempting to recapture a few of the offense they thought they may survive with out, however will probably be a brand new route nonetheless. Toronto’s entrance workplace is already aggressively exploring the commerce market, positioning itself to maneuver rapidly if the skinny free-agent market doesn’t present each reply.
A lot of 2024’s success or failure will rely on what occurs internally, although.
Listed below are three causes to consider it might get higher … and three issues to fret about:
THREE THINGS TO BELIEVE IN
1) A full season — hopefully — of Danny Jansen
So lots of Jansen’s accidents boil right down to unhealthy luck. If these have been repeated soft-tissue accidents or a bum shoulder, then you may slap the “injury-prone” tag on Jansen, however his illnesses have come on foul suggestions and bounces that would go the opposite manner in 2024. If that occurs, you’re taking a look at top-of-the-line offensive catchers in baseball with the best motivator in baseball: a contract 12 months.
Let’s mix Jansen’s final two seasons — a helpful pattern to seize who he’s been since totally embracing his identification as a pull-side energy hitter. Over 158 video games, he hit .242 with 32 residence runs and an .817 OPS. Regulate that to roughly 120 video games for a wholesome Jansen, and you’d nonetheless be taking a look at 25 residence runs — a beneficial secondary energy bat in a lineup desperately in want of 1 (or three).
2) A prospect who pops
This 12 months, it was Davis Schneider, and it may very well be his present to steal once more in 2024. Schneider ought to have a semi-regular function with this membership already and can compete for extra, however the candy spot with prospects is to have 5 or 6 land on the similar time. The Blue Jays are lastly getting nearer to that.
Between Schneider, Orelvis Martinez (No. 2 prospect, per MLB Pipeline), Leo Jimenez (No. 6), Alan Roden (No. 7), Spencer Horwitz (No. 16), Damiano Palmegiani (No. 18) and others, the Blue Jays are positioned nicely to have one other prospect shock in 2024. Why is that so necessary? Cash. If the Blue Jays can financial institution on one or two of those names in official roles subsequent 12 months, it frees up hundreds of thousands (and hundreds of thousands) of {dollars} to handle one other spot.
3) Vladdy …?
The brand new actuality of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is much from 2021, an MVP-caliber season. He owns an .804 OPS since and appears extra like a 30-homer bat than one who will blow previous 40 every season. However coming into his age-25 season, there’s nonetheless a lot time for Guerrero to discover a center floor.
Frankly, that is one you’ve already learn 50 instances in 2023. Guerrero’s underlying numbers level to much better manufacturing, however that should present up on the sector. If that ever occurs, there may be nonetheless no participant on this roster as able to altering this workforce’s future.
THREE THINGS TO WORRY ABOUT
1) The ceiling of the rotation
The quartet of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi was good in 2023. Their mixed 742 1/3 innings have been probably the most for any MLB membership from their high 4 starters, and all 4 loved top-of-the-line seasons of their careers. It couldn’t have gone a lot better.
In a recreation of getting ready for what may go flawed, although, that is the primary place to look. Berríos’ 2022 season is an instance of how rapidly and unexpectedly issues can go flawed, and Kikuchi will probably be tasked with sustaining his breakthrough as nicely. This isn’t a knock on any of the 4 veterans, however a wager on the realities of Main League Baseball. Can it go that nicely once more?
2) The ground of the rotation
This one’s simpler to quantify. Alek Manoah enters camp as the final word unknown, coming off a horrible 2023 season, and Toronto’s depth past the beginning 5 has been too skinny for at the very least the previous two seasons.
Ross Stripling’s 2022 season and Hyun Jin Ryu’s return a 12 months in the past saved this group from being that uncovered, however what if the Blue Jays must go 9 or 10 starters deep this summer time?
3) Bullpens … they’re unpredictable
That is me taking the straightforward manner out — the “free sq. on the bingo card,” if you’ll. Toronto’s bullpen appears incredible on paper, and it might get higher, however consider this equally to the highest 4 within the rotation. Will the bullpen be that good once more or regress a bit?
This group might regress and nonetheless be excellent, after all. A 12 months in the past, this bullpen ranked eighth in MLB with a 3.68 ERA, fifth in Ok/9 (9.79) and fourth in BB/9 (3.15). This group is simply too good to go off a cliff, however relievers are so troublesome to foretell 12 months to 12 months.
