A highly anticipated confrontation is set: World No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will compete for the French Open men`s championship this Sunday. These two top players have collectively secured the last five Grand Slam titles, but remarkably, they have never faced each other in a major final. Both enter with perfect records in Grand Slam finals they have reached so far: Alcaraz stands at 4-0, while Sinner is 3-0.
Who is predicted to emerge victorious? Our panel of experts offers their perspectives on the potential strategies for each player to claim the win.
What strategies can Alcaraz employ to defeat Sinner?
Rennae Stubbs: Alcaraz should capitalize on his exceptional athleticism and speed, effectively transitioning from defense to offense to pressure Sinner and induce errors. He needs to vary his shots, especially employing drop shots, to move Sinner into less comfortable areas of the court, and should actively come to the net to rush his opponent.
Simon Cambers: Alcaraz`s approach should be consistent with his successful tactics in their four most recent encounters: perform strongly and leverage his inherent advantages. He holds a 2-1 lead on clay against Sinner, with victories in last year`s Roland Garros semifinal and a recent match in Rome. Clay suits Alcaraz well, enabling his potent forehand to create high bounce and allowing him to maneuver opponents around the court even more effectively than on other surfaces. The rallies will likely be lengthy and intense, but Alcaraz`s more complete game – including drop shots, acute angles, and net play – should give him an edge, provided his serve is accurate, unlike his performance against Musetti in the semifinal. He will also seek to make the match physically demanding. While Sinner is very strong, few can match Alcaraz`s endurance on clay over four or five sets, and the Spaniard will chase down nearly everything.
D`Arcy Maine: Alcaraz possesses several advantages heading into this final. As the defending champion, he brings valuable experience from having played in the Roland Garros final previously. Moreover, he has won their last four matches overall, including the two most recent ones on clay. His 7-6 (5), 6-1 victory in the Italian Open final three weeks ago was described by Alcaraz as `one of the best` matches he`s played, where he highlighted his ability to maintain focus on his game plan throughout. He must replicate this approach, using his varied skill set and physicality, patiently selecting opportunities to attack, and continuously altering the pace. Although Sinner appears sharp after his recovery period, he hasn`t played a match exceeding three sets since the fourth round of the Australian Open. A longer match would increasingly favor Alcaraz, a fact he is undoubtedly aware of.
Bill Connelly: Alcaraz should continue to play aggressively. His recent four-match winning streak against Sinner, particularly the last three, has largely resulted from his success in hitting winners against Sinner`s increasingly formidable defense. At this French Open, Sinner`s opponents have managed to hit winners on 15% of points. In their last three meetings, Alcaraz`s winner percentage was notably higher: 22.3% in last year`s French Open semifinal, 21.8% in Beijing (October), and 22.5% in the second set in Rome (May) after a cautious first set. Winning shorter points is crucial in this rivalry, and Alcaraz has recently gained the upper hand in this aspect. He is the only player to have defeated Sinner since August, indicating that his peak offensive performance is required to succeed.
What steps can Sinner take to overcome Alcaraz?
Rennae Stubbs: Sinner must leverage his power, especially targeting Alcaraz`s forehand. He cannot allow Alcaraz to dictate the play. Maintaining depth on his shots is essential to control the rallies. A high first-serve percentage is also imperative.
Simon Cambers: Sinner has been impressive en route to the final, reaching it without dropping a set and building momentum from his 20 consecutive Grand Slam match victories. However, he will need an exceptionally strong serving performance against Alcaraz, who is quick to exploit weak returns. Sinner hits with significant power, and if he is performing at his best, he can penetrate Alcaraz`s defenses like few others can, but he must remain patient because Alcaraz will retrieve more balls than his other opponents. Sinner will also be wary of Alcaraz`s formidable forehand, so expect him to frequently direct shots towards Alcaraz`s backhand while looking for opportunities on a shorter ball. If he can execute these strategies, Sinner has a good chance.
D`Arcy Maine: Sinner`s perfect record of not dropping a set in this tournament is a testament to his consistent performance. His composed demeanor, demonstrated by his calm handling of the third-set tiebreak against Novak Djokovic, will be crucial in the final`s tense moments. Sinner must be prepared to capitalize if Alcaraz shows any signs of pressure. A significant challenge will be countering Alcaraz`s incredible court coverage and ability to return almost any shot. Echoing Simon Cambers` view, Maine stresses the necessity of Sinner`s powerful serving to deny Alcaraz easy points. She concludes by observing Sinner`s visible improvement since his return at the Italian Open and suggests he might elevate his game further for Sunday`s match.
Bill Connelly: I agree that landing a high percentage of first serves is vital – Sinner was able to recover from many first-serve misses against Djokovic, but this isn`t a strategy to rely on often. The key against Alcaraz, however, might lie in Sinner`s performance on Alcaraz`s serve. Connelly presents statistics: Sinner holds a 4-3 record against Alcaraz when he wins at least 37% of points on Alcaraz`s serve, but is 0-5 when he doesn`t. During his recent four-match losing streak to Alcaraz, Sinner reached the 37% threshold only once and consequently faced significantly more break points (38) than he created (22). In a contest often decided by fine margins, Alcaraz has gained an advantage in service games, a trend Sinner likely needs to reverse on Sunday.
Who is predicted to win?
Rennae Stubbs: I predict Sinner will win. I believe he is currently playing at an exceptionally high level, his record in majors is outstanding, and I feel this is his moment to finally overcome Alcaraz in a major match. His performance on clay in this tournament has been the best I`ve seen from him. Prediction: Sinner in four sets.
Simon Cambers: With Alcaraz at 4-0 and Sinner at 3-0 in Grand Slam finals, one perfect record is bound to be broken. These players typically bring out the best in each other, promising spectacular tennis. However, on clay, which provides slightly more time to react and defend, Alcaraz holds a slight edge. He could win this match in four or five sets.
D`Arcy Maine: My prediction is Alcaraz in four sets. He has had a strong clay court season and possesses a clear understanding of how to defeat Sinner on this surface. This title feels like his to claim. Additionally, as noted by Bastien Fachan on X, a win would make Alcaraz the exact same age, to the day, as Rafael Nadal was when he won his fifth major title. Perhaps that`s destiny?
Bill Connelly: I am picking Sinner. Overall, I believe he is the best player in the world right now – it was striking to see Djokovic utilize all his tactical skills and still fail to win a set against Sinner recently. While Alcaraz certainly has potential advantages, particularly on clay, the difference between the players, even in Alcaraz`s victories, has been minimal. I see this match as essentially a coin toss, and since others might lean towards Alcaraz, I`ll choose Sinner!
Marcus Bellamy