Jake Paul kicks off his 2025 schedule with a 10-round cruiserweight fight against former middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in Anaheim, California. This marks Paul`s 13th professional bout and his first against a recognized former boxing champion, aside from his match against the then 58-year-old Mike Tyson last November.
On paper, Chavez Jr. presents arguably the most credible opponent Paul has faced, outside of Tyson. However, Chavez`s recent activity is limited, with only one fight since December 2021. Throughout his career, even during his peak from 2008 to 2016, Chavez Jr. was known for inconsistent training discipline, leading to multiple weight misses, failed drug tests in 2009 and 2012, and a suspension in 2019 for refusing a test. Despite winning a majority decision for the WBC middleweight title in 2011, he has largely remained in the shadow of his legendary father. Given this history, questions linger about his focus for this upcoming fight.
In contrast, Jake Paul has maintained a busy schedule, competing three times in 2024 and defeating Anderson Silva in 2022. He has approached the sport cautiously, like many newcomers, but his mainstream influence has provided a unique platform. As Paul gains experience, the central question shifts from “Can Paul beat Chavez?” to “Can Chavez beat Paul?”.
How Paul is Evolving as a Fighter
Paul demonstrates good footwork and leg strength, crucial for movement, evasion, and creating offensive angles in boxing. While basic footwork can be taught, true ring intelligence lies in subtleties like recognizing opportunities, setting traps, timing movements, and closing distance effectively – skills typically refined over years of sparring and repetition. After five years, Paul is starting to grasp these finer points.
He appears more composed and self-assured in the ring. He is alert, calmer in his approach, and comfortable initiating or countering exchanges. His overhand right has become a notable weapon, often cleverly disguised with a lower body feint before being launched with surprising power. Deception is vital in boxing, and Paul is evolving beyond brute force, implementing a more technical approach focused on hitting without being hit.
Though he still lacks the polished technique of a veteran, Paul`s awkwardness can make him instinctively dangerous. Mastering boxing fundamentals requires athleticism, strength, coordination, and adaptability, which Paul seems to possess. With 12 pro fights, his capabilities are becoming clear. He has earned respect for his dedication both inside and outside the ring, particularly for elevating women`s boxing and creating opportunities. By all accounts, he is disciplined in the gym.
Where Chavez Jr. Holds an Advantage
Chavez Jr. brings the poise of a veteran immersed in boxing since birth. His presence reflects muscle memory developed over years of high-level competition. His lateral movement, while not flashy, is instinctive. He knows his way around the ring and exhibits a calm aggression.
His July 2024 victory over Uriah Hall, after a nearly three-year layoff, may have helped shake off ring rust and boost confidence. Chavez typically fights behind a high, tight guard, leaning forward in a classic Mexican style designed to invite and counter offense. His signature weapon is the lead left hook, often targeting the body early, mirroring his father`s approach to sap opponents` stamina.
Chavez understands core boxing fundamentals (jab, move, slip) and his extensive experience gives him a significant edge over a still-developing boxer like Paul.
Paul`s Improved Left Hook…
Expect Paul to showcase sharp footwork and reflexes early on, working behind a varied jab and using in-and-out movements to land shots before quickly retreating. This hit-and-don`t-get-hit strategy relies heavily on speed and timing. Paul will likely initiate clinches to disrupt Chavez`s rhythm and smother his offense, especially when he`s not prepared to punch.
One of Paul`s improving tools is his lead left hook, used both for offense and to reposition himself off the center line. Given Chavez Jr.`s reliance on his own hook, Paul must be selective when deploying his. Pay attention to Paul`s jab variation and body feints designed to keep Chavez guessing. When Chavez loads up on his left hook, expect Paul to maintain a high guard.
While Paul`s footwork will be sharp initially, watch how it holds up as the fight progresses into the “comfort zone.” If Chavez begins to tire, Paul will likely look to increase pressure. Expect moments of intense exchanges, perhaps even some rough tactics from Paul as he pushes the pace.
…vs. Chavez Jr.`s Established Left Hook
Chavez Jr. may start with visible confidence, potentially underestimating Paul as merely a YouTuber rather than a seasoned pro. Like many veterans, he`ll likely take the first couple of rounds to assess Paul`s capabilities, testing his power by blocking shots.
Chavez`s favored setup is the “stab jab” to the body – a deliberate punch meant not just for scoring, but to lower the opponent`s guard before coming upstairs with something more dangerous. How Paul defends this body jab will reveal his ring IQ. Will he maintain his level, step back, or make the concerning mistake of reaching down to parry? If Paul drops his hands to block the body jab, he becomes vulnerable to Chavez`s fast, automatic, and effective left hook. If Paul doesn`t see it coming, it could spell trouble.
Potential Fight Outcome
Paul, as the naturally larger fighter at 200 pounds, will likely use his size and physicality, pressing forward in spurts to disrupt Chavez`s rhythm and potentially expose his tendency to break his base under pressure, especially as fatigue sets in. Stamina will be critical. Paul is likely in good condition from recent training camps, while Chavez has a history of conditioning issues, which could be exacerbated by fighting above his former championship weight.
Chavez certainly has a path to victory by controlling the mid-range, investing in body shots early, and countering Paul`s offense. He can make Paul uncomfortable, forcing mistakes, particularly as Paul can struggle transitioning from mid-range to close quarters and is quick to tie up. However, Paul`s youth, athleticism, and growing tactical understanding of when to box and when to apply pressure make him dangerous. His ability to vary movement and pace will be key.
Prediction
This fight represents a clash of two different boxing journeys: one inherited and potentially taken for granted, the other forged through hard work under public scrutiny. The subtle difference in experience – Chavez`s innate ring feel versus Paul`s relentless drive to prove himself – could be the deciding factor. Can Chavez beat Paul? Absolutely. But based on their recent trajectories and Paul`s evident dedication, I don`t believe he will.