The competition for NHL playoff berths in the Eastern Conference is reaching a fever pitch. It’s anticipated that teams will need approximately 97-98 points to secure a spot, suggesting that even strong contenders could miss the postseason and face an early end to their campaigns. The burning question remains: which teams are best positioned to navigate this challenging playoff gauntlet?
Which Teams Are Most Vulnerable?
This season stands out with an unusually high playoff points threshold. Among those precarious, the New York Islanders recently slipped out of a playoff position following a 4-3 defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks, indicating a worrying downward trend. While their expected goals share (xG%) of 49.87% over their last 25 games is respectable, their defensive performance has become a notable weakness.
Over their last 25 contests, the Islanders have allowed an average of 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes, placing them 23rd in the league for this metric. This defensive vulnerability has been a season-long issue, largely masked by the exceptional play of goaltender Ilya Sorokin, a top Vezina Trophy candidate who leads the NHL with 29.5 goals saved above expected. The crucial question is whether Sorokin can single-handedly propel them to a playoff spot in the remaining three weeks.
The Boston Bruins also appear to be in a vulnerable position. Similar to the Islanders, their five-on-five statistics present concerns: an xG% of 46.05% over their past 25 games and an allowance of 2.95 expected goals per 60 minutes. Goaltender Jeremy Swayman, another strong Vezina candidate, faces the challenge of carrying the team through to the playoffs.
Both the Islanders and Bruins possess high-caliber talent that can single-handedly change games. The Islanders feature Matthew Schaefer, a player described as a top contender for the Calder Trophy and likely to garner Norris Trophy votes. Meanwhile, David Pastrnak of the Bruins is a proven, formidable goal-scorer, even if not an award candidate this year. These individual stars are vital for teams struggling to dictate play at even strength.
Metropolitan Division Mayhem
The Metropolitan Division has witnessed a tumultuous season. Underperforming teams such as the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils have surprisingly cleared a path for squads like the Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Pittsburgh Penguins to contend for playoff spots.
Currently, only two points separate the Blue Jackets and Penguins, who occupy second and third in the Metro, from falling out of a playoff position entirely. Despite this tight margin, their chances of securing a postseason berth appear more favorable than those of the Islanders.
Beginning with the Blue Jackets, their transformation under head coach Rick Bowness has been remarkable. With an impressive 18-3-4 record in their last 25 games, they have climbed into a playoff spot. This ascent is no fluke, as they’ve established themselves as one of the NHL’s top five-on-five teams during this period.
Boasting a 53.42% xG% over their past 25 games, the Blue Jackets have evolved into a formidable two-way team. They excel at generating offense while simultaneously limiting opponents’ opportunities, further bolstered by Jet Greaves’ excellent goaltending. Their strong performance suggests they are not only poised for a playoff berth but also possess the potential to advance beyond the first round.
Conversely, the Pittsburgh Penguins have defied expectations. Despite being widely predicted (by many, including this writer) to be drafting high for a prospect like Gavin McKenna, they now seem on track to secure a playoff spot. They exhibit solid five-on-five play, evidenced by their 51.79% xG% over their last 25 games, though certain concerns persist.
Under head coach Dan Muse, the Penguins have adopted an aggressive, offensive-minded ‘run-and-gun’ style. While they produce significant scoring chances, they also concede a considerable number of opportunities, allowing 2.83 expected goals per 60 minutes in their last 25 games. Their goaltending depth doesn’t match the elite level seen with Sorokin for the Islanders or Swayman for the Bruins. Although Pittsburgh has demonstrated an ability to compensate for defensive weaknesses with offense, their playoff prospects could become precarious if their scoring production falters.
Senators and Red Wings: Can They Make the Cut?
The pressure is mounting in Detroit. While this isn’t necessarily a ‘Stanley Cup or bust’ season, securing a playoff berth feels imperative for the Red Wings. General Manager Steve Yzerman, appointed in 2019, has yet to guide the team to the postseason.
The Red Wings present a curious case. Their five-on-five metrics are respectable, boasting a 50.88% xG% over their last 25 games. However, a significant concern is their -4 goal differential across all strengths, making them the only team discussed here pursuing a playoff spot with a negative differential. They are currently on a downward trajectory; a recent 3-2 regulation loss to the Ottawa Senators slashed their playoff probability to 45.8%. While their playoff hopes aren’t entirely extinguished, they’ve squandered a comfortable 7-point lead for a postseason berth.
The Ottawa Senators, conversely, have demonstrated stellar five-on-five play throughout much of the season, particularly over their last 25 games where their 57.21% xG% ranks first in the league. They also boast an impressive +23 goal differential across all strengths. Crucially, their goaltending, which was among the league’s weakest before the Olympics, has significantly improved.
However, the Senators are currently battling a growing injury crisis. Key players like Thomas Chabot and Lassi Thomson face potential extended absences, joining Jake Sanderson and Nick Jensen on the sidelines. This influx of injuries could severely impact their performance in the remaining three weeks of the regular season, yet they continue to exceed expectations, presently occupying a wild-card position in the Eastern Conference.
Eastern Conference: A Thrilling Finish Awaits
With the Eastern Conference standings incredibly tight, predicting the final playoff spots feels like a gamble. Nonetheless, here are some projections: The Blue Jackets, revitalized under Coach Bowness, have performed as one of the league’s top teams and appear destined to clinch a berth. The Penguins, despite defensive and goaltending worries, are currently in a strong position, and I anticipate them securing third place in the Metropolitan Division.
Provided their improved goaltending sustains, the Senators are strong candidates for the playoffs. Their league-leading five-on-five statistics among the teams discussed are typically a reliable predictor of sustained success. Presently, both the Islanders and Red Wings seem to be heading towards missing the postseason, but the race is expected to remain incredibly close until the very end, promising a thrilling conclusion to the regular season’s final three weeks.