Prominent streamer Vadim “Evelone” Kozakov recently undertook a monumental task: opening an extensive collection of cases and capsules within Counter-Strike 2. This ambitious endeavor, broadcast live on Twitch, captured the attention of many viewers eager to witness potentially rare in-game item drops.
The scope of the opening was substantial, involving items with an estimated aggregate value of ₽12 million (approximately $130,000 USD, subject to exchange rates). These items were reportedly received as a birthday gift, transforming a personal celebration into a public spectacle of digital unboxing.
However, the outcome served as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of loot box mechanics. Despite the considerable “investment” represented by the items, the resulting collection of skins and stickers proved to be of significantly lower market value. According to Kozakov`s own assessment, the cumulative worth of the items obtained from this vast opening amounted to approximately ₽550k (around $6,000 USD).
This discrepancy highlights the inherent gamble involved in such openings. A notable instance involved the opening of an IEM Katowice 2014 Challengers capsule, an item with a considerable market price itself, valued at around ₽2.2 million (about $24,000 USD). The return from this specific capsule was a single Clan Mystik sticker, estimated to be worth only ₽65k (around $700 USD) – a return rate that could be described charitably as `modest`, or perhaps more accurately, `astoundingly low`.
The extensive opening, covering various types of cases and capsules, consistently yielded results skewed towards lower-tier items. While exciting high-value drops are the dream sold by the system, the reality, as demonstrated here on a grand scale with real numbers, is that the vast majority of unboxings result in items worth less, often *far* less, than the cost of acquiring the cases or capsules themselves, especially when considering the inflated price of vintage items like the Katowice 2014 series due to scarcity and collector demand.
Evelone`s ₽12 million experiment serves as a transparent, albeit costly, illustration of the typical probabilities at play within CS2`s container system. It`s a compelling case study, visible to thousands, confirming that while the thrill of the unbox persists, the expectation of profitability or even recouping costs when opening a large volume of standard cases or expensive historical capsules is, statistically speaking, generally unfounded.