Despite their status as top players in recent years, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have yet to meet in a Grand Slam final. This pattern continues as they are scheduled to compete in the French Open semifinals this Thursday.
Their head-to-head record stands at 12 matches, with Swiatek holding an 8-4 advantage, including 5-1 on clay courts. However, Sabalenka claimed victory in their last encounter and has shown slightly stronger form this spring, securing the title in Madrid and being a finalist in Stuttgart.
In contrast, four-time Roland Garros winner Swiatek reached the semifinals in Madrid but had early exits in Stuttgart and Rome. Her ranking drop outside the top four is the reason this clash occurs before the final match.
Sabalenka`s Strengths and Path to Victory
As the current world No. 1, Sabalenka advanced to the semifinals without losing a set. Her quarterfinal win over Zheng Qinwen, who was the only opponent to force a tiebreak, was particularly significant following Zheng`s victory over her in Rome. Given Swiatek`s performance this year hasn`t been consistently overwhelming, Sabalenka might be considered the slight favorite entering the match.
Sabalenka`s serve, previously a vulnerability, is now a major asset. She has hit 25 aces in her five matches at Roland Garros and will challenge Swiatek`s return game. When receiving, Sabalenka positions herself very aggressively, often inside the baseline, which will pressure Swiatek`s serve, a part of her game that has been developing this year and can still be inconsistent, particularly on the ad side.
Moreover, Sabalenka is highly motivated to win her first French Open title, adding it to her successes at the Australian Open (twice) and US Open. Following a less-than-perfect start in her opening match, she demonstrated characteristic resilience and skill to defeat Zheng, and this desire will drive her towards reaching the final.
Swiatek`s Advantage and Road to Victory
Swiatek`s formidable record at Roland Garros speaks for itself. Her tournament record stands at an astounding 40-2; only Rafael Nadal reached 40 wins faster (in one fewer match). Having already won the title four times, she is currently on a 26-match winning streak at the event, second only to Chris Evert`s 29 consecutive wins from 1979 to 1981. A victory this year would make her the first woman to win the title four years in a row.
While this year hasn`t met Swiatek`s usual high standards – though she was just one point away from the Australian Open final – she remains the world`s premier clay-court player. Her comeback win against Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, recovering from a significant deficit (6-1, 2-0 down), could be a pivotal moment for her season. Even if her overall form hasn`t been peak, her expertise on clay allows her to find her best game when it matters most on this surface.
Her dominant 5-1 record against Sabalenka on clay should provide a mental edge. She knows that if she performs at her highest level, victory is highly probable.
Prediction: Who Takes the Match?
This encounter evokes comparisons to Rafael Nadal`s history at Roland Garros, where he often improved form as the tournament progressed to secure victories. If Swiatek delivers her top performance, she is likely to win. Sabalenka hasn`t been without challenges on clay herself. Swiatek`s strategic adjustments, like altering her return position against Rybakina, indicate she`s regaining her tactical sharpness. Clay is Swiatek`s strongest surface, her “domain,” giving her an edge in what is expected to be a closely contested semifinal.
Marcus Bellamy