Boxing icon Manny Pacquiao is set to make his highly anticipated return to the ring after a nearly four-year break. He will challenge Mario Barrios for the WBC welterweight title on July 19 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
“I`m back,” Pacquiao announced on social media, confirming his comeback. “Let`s make history!”
Pacquiao`s last professional fight was in August 2021, where he lost a unanimous decision to Yordenis Ugas at the age of 42. When he steps back into the ring against Barrios, he will be 46 years old.
Pacquiao, who is scheduled for induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame on June 8, has not publicly elaborated on his motivation for ending retirement. However, the “history” he mentioned likely refers to the opportunity to surpass his own record as the oldest boxer to win a 147-pound world championship (set at 40 years, 215 days). Historically, only two boxers have managed to win world title fights at age 46 or older: George Foreman and Bernard Hopkins. Foreman relied on devastating power late in his career, while Hopkins leveraged technique and defense. Pacquiao, in contrast, has always heavily depended on his natural athleticism and blinding speed, qualities that appeared to diminish in his last outing.
Data from CompuBox illustrates this decline. In his six fights since turning 40, Pacquiao averaged significantly fewer punches thrown and landed per round compared to his prime years (his 14 fights prior). For example, total punches landed per round dropped from 20.3 to 12.9, and power punches landed per round decreased from 16.5 to 8.7. His overall punch connect percentage also fell.
| Metric | Pacquiao (Last 6 fights, aged 40+) | Pacquiao (Prime, prior 14 fights) |
|---|---|---|
| Total avg. thrown per round | 50.7 | 60.8 |
| Total avg. landed per round | 12.9 | 20.3 |
| Landing Percentage | 25.4% | 33.4% |
| Power avg. landed per round | 8.7 | 16.5 |
| Power Landing Percentage | 35.4% | 46% |
Defeating Mario Barrios presents a formidable challenge for the sole eight-division world champion. At 6 feet tall, Barrios will be the tallest opponent Pacquiao has ever faced. The 16-year age gap is also the largest differential Pacquiao has encountered as a welterweight.
However, the most significant adversary for Pacquiao inside the ring might not be Barrios, but Father Time himself.
Pacquiao is working with legendary trainer Freddie Roach once again, aiming to devise a strategy for an upset. Yet, returning to the demands of elite boxing after nearly half a decade away, especially in your mid-40s, is incredibly difficult for a fighter whose style is built on speed and explosiveness.
For Pacquiao to pull off an upset victory against Barrios (who is currently favored), he needs to defy his age and somehow regain some of his lost athleticism. His historical success stemmed from his ability to dart in and out, unleashing rapid combinations from unpredictable angles. Only elite counterpunchers like Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather Jr. could effectively counter this. As Pacquiao aged, fighters like Jeff Horn were able to outwork him more easily. Still, even at 40, Pacquiao showed enough speed to defeat Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman in 2019.
That was six years ago. In his most recent bout against Yordenis Ugas, Pacquiao displayed less explosiveness and his footwork was disrupted by Ugas`s jab and right hand. Ugas is a technically sound Cuban boxer who relies on fundamentals over athleticism, and he ultimately outworked Pacquiao in what was widely expected to be his final fight.
The fight against Barrios will hinge on whether Pacquiao can rediscover elements of his past form while overcoming his opponent`s physical advantages. If he cannot effectively use angles and footwork to move in and out quickly, he risks being kept at bay and controlled by Barrios`s long jab.
Barrios is not without his weaknesses. In his last fight, he salvaged a split draw against Abel Ramos. He sometimes diminishes his height and reach advantages by fighting `small,` making him vulnerable on the inside, as seen in his loss to Gervonta Davis. Barrios can also be somewhat slower and potentially outworked by a quicker opponent, as Thurman demonstrated in their 2022 fight (though Thurman was much younger and closer to his prime than Pacquiao is now).
Given his age and layoff, it is highly unlikely that Pacquiao will be faster or more explosive than he was six years ago against Thurman and Broner. His comeback faces steep odds.