Ranking the top contenders at Wimbledon 2025

The start of Wimbledon holds different significance for the men`s and women`s tours.

For the men`s tour, Wimbledon is arguably the most predictable Grand Slam. In the last two decades, only twelve players have reached the final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic dominated, appearing in over half of the 40 final spots themselves. Djokovic has been in the last six finals, winning four and losing the last two to Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has won the last four Grand Slams on natural surfaces (clay or grass). It would be reasonable to expect him in the final again.

On the women`s side, the situation is quite different. Despite a clear hierarchy at the top with Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff winning nine of the last ten hard court or clay Slams, seven different women have claimed the last seven Wimbledon titles. The past four years at the All England Club have seen thirteen unique semifinalists. Grass seems to highlight men`s dominance but acts as a randomizer for the women.

Therefore, the 2025 edition of this historic tournament presents several clear narratives. Alcaraz, Djokovic, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner are the strong favorites in the men`s draw. However, with Sabalenka and Gauff facing challenging draws and the unpredictable nature of grass courts, the women`s tournament could unfold in many ways. Let`s examine the players most likely to make deep runs and shape the 2025 Wimbledon fortnight.

The favorites

Carlos Alcaraz

Odds by ESPN BET: +125 | Tennis Abstract odds: 54.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (quarterfinals)

Coming off a victory in the best Slam final of the 2020s – his epic comeback against Sinner at the French Open – Alcaraz comfortably navigated his only grass-court preparation, defeating Jiri Lehecka to win at Queen`s Club a week prior. It`s unfair to constantly compare younger players to the standard set by the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal), who each won over 20 Slams and might be the three greatest male players ever. However, Alcaraz is making such comparisons unavoidable. Nadal had won four Slam titles by his 22nd birthday, while Djokovic and Federer had only won one each by that age. Alcaraz secured his fifth a month after turning 22. While he lacks Sinner`s unwavering consistency, his peak performance and inherent potential are unmatched, as demonstrated in the later sets against Sinner in Paris. His capacity to adapt and innovate in unique conditions could position him as the favorite for every French Open or Wimbledon he enters over the next decade.

Jannik Sinner

Odds by ESPN BET: +190 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)

Since mid-August, Sinner`s record is 48-4 – 0-3 against Alcaraz and 48-1 against everyone else. He lost in three sets to the in-form Alexander Bublik last week in Halle, Germany. Sinner is less proven on grass compared to other surfaces, although he did reach the Wimbledon semifinals in 2023. He is comfortably the world`s best hard-court player and only seems to improve with each tournament. Sinner`s draw is challenging. Even before potentially meeting Djokovic on his best surface in the semifinals (and presumably Alcaraz in the final), he might face 2021 semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in the third round, 2024 quarterfinalist Tommy Paul or 2014 semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round, and 2024 semifinalist Lorenzo Musetti or big-serving Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals. He won`t have much easy time finding his best form, but it`s difficult to bet against him making a strong run.

2025 Women`s Wimbledon Odds

Aryna Sabalenka

Odds by ESPN BET: +240 | Tennis Abstract odds: 19.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys or No. 9 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)

The only thing Aryna Sabalenka has lacked in 2025 is a strong finish. She has reached the finals in seven out of ten tournaments entered but has lost four of her last six finals, including the Australian Open against Keys and the French Open against Gauff. She has reached the semifinals in her last two Wimbledon appearances. In a potential final preview, she defeated Elena Rybakina in Berlin last week, saving four match points in the final set tiebreaker. Like Sinner, she`ll face a tough path: Her draw could include 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, local favorite Emma Raducanu, or Nottingham champion McCartney Kessler in the third round, two-time semifinalist Elina Svitolina in the fourth, Keys in the quarterfinals, and 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini in the semifinals. It`s a challenging road, but Sabalenka is the most consistent top player on the women`s tour.

Novak Djokovic

Odds by ESPN BET: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 21.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (quarterfinals)

Just in case we needed a reminder that Novak Djokovic`s standards remain incredibly high, we saw it in Paris. In a 2025 season marked by more persistent injuries and, at one point, his first three-match losing streak in over seven years, his run to the French Open semifinals was definitely encouraging. He won four consecutive matches in straight sets – showing he didn`t need to play his way into form – and defeated Alexander Zverev in four sets before losing to Sinner in the semis. Even against Sinner, he didn`t lose a set by more than one break (6-4, 7-5, 7-6). However, he was visibly emotional leaving the court and later admitted he might be closer to retirement than ever. We all are, I suppose. Emptying his strategic toolkit but still failing to take even a set from Sinner clearly left him feeling quite vulnerable. Being decisively beaten by Alcaraz in last year`s Wimbledon final (6-2, 6-2, 7-6) likely had a similar effect. But if the 24-time Slam champion is to reach number 25, it`s most likely to happen at the All England Club, where he has won the trophy seven times and has lost only twice since 2017. His draw is tricky – No. 11 Alex De Minaur, a 2024 quarterfinalist, could be waiting in the fourth round, followed by Indian Wells champion Draper (who took a set from Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2021) in the quarterfinals. But Djokovic wouldn`t need many favorable bounces to go deep into the second week.

Coco Gauff

Odds by ESPN BET: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)

Still just 21 years old, Coco Gauff has already built a career worthy of the Hall of Fame, with two Grand Slam titles, a WTA Finals win in 2024, two additional 1000-level titles, and a Grand Slam doubles title. And she has achieved all this despite occasional struggles with her serve and forehand – indicating she still has clear areas for improvement. Scary thought. She is still seeking a breakthrough at Wimbledon, however. Her 2019 upset of five-time champion Venus Williams there, as a 15-year-old, was a defining early moment, but she has won only eight matches total in her last four Wimbledon appearances. And like Sabalenka, her draw is not easy: Gauff could face a resurgent Sofia Kenin in the third round – Kenin upset her in the first round here two years ago – before potentially meeting Swiatek or Rybakina in the quarterfinals. But even at this relatively early stage in her career, Gauff has proven herself too formidable not to be considered a top favorite.

Elena Rybakina

Odds by ESPN BET: +550 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (fourth round)

Elena Rybakina is a player for the big occasions. Since her unexpected run to the 2022 Wimbledon title, she holds a 12-8 record in semifinals and a 7-5 record in finals. She has won four of her last seven matches against Sabalenka and split her last eight encounters with Swiatek. Rybakina has navigated significant coaching changes over the past year and suffered four upset losses against players ranked 80th or lower. However, her peak game remains spectacular. Rybakina possesses the most effective serve among top players, winning 63% of her service points this year, the highest percentage for any top-50 player. Over the last three years, she is 16-2 at Wimbledon. She might need to overcome Swiatek in the fourth round and Gauff in the quarterfinals, but the betting odds place her as a co-favorite with Gauff to reach the final from the bottom half of the draw.

Only need a few breaks

Iga Swiatek

Odds by ESPN BET: +850 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Coco Gauff (quarterfinals)

It has been an unusual year for the five-time Grand Slam champion, who dropped to No. 8 in the WTA rankings before her strong performance this week at Bad Homburg. (Swiatek is playing Jessica Pegula in the final and has risen back to fourth). Swiatek has already lost ten matches this year – more than she lost in all of 2024 – and failed to win the French Open for the first time since 2021. Her run at Bad Homburg was encouraging, but Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam where she has never reached at least the semifinals. With Rybakina and Gauff potentially blocking her path, it would be a surprise if her first semifinal appearance here happens this year.

2025 Wimbledon Men`s Odds

Jack Draper

Odds by ESPN BET: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals)

On one hand, the 23-year-old Brit has had a breakthrough season, building on his 2024 US Open semifinal run by winning the Indian Wells title, reaching two other finals, and climbing to No. 4 in the world rankings. On the other hand, his all-time record at Wimbledon, his home Grand Slam, is only 2-3, and his overall grass record is 20-14. Draper did defeat Alcaraz at Queen`s Club last year and made a respectable semifinal run there this year. However, with the in-form Alexander Bublik potentially waiting in the third round and Djokovic in the quarterfinals, his draw is not favorable.

Madison Keys

Odds by ESPN BET: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)

The Australian Open champion reached a career-high ranking of No. 5 the week after her 30th birthday and holds an 11-1 record in Grand Slams this season following a French Open quarterfinal appearance. Keys has reached two Wimbledon quarterfinals and is the projected favorite to meet Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. However, she lost her last two grass-court matches in straight sets against grass-court specialists Tatjana Maria and Marketa Vondrousova.

Marketa Vondrousova

Odds by ESPN BET: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (third round)

Marketa Vondrousova experienced a significant rise and fall after winning Wimbledon in 2023. She was upset in the first round last year and then missed most of seven months due to injury. She also lost five of her first eleven matches in 2025, but bounced back by defeating Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur, and Sabalenka (in straight sets) en route to the Berlin title on grass. Still ranked only 73rd, Vondrousova is drawn against McCartney Kessler in the first round, potentially followed by Raducanu and Sabalenka. It`s a difficult draw, but the unconventional lefty will be a tough opponent.

Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2500)

Players Who Excel on Grass (and/or Love Wimbledon)

Elina Svitolina

Odds by ESPN BET: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)

The 30-year-old Ukrainian has returned to strong form since her comeback after maternity leave in 2023, reaching five quarterfinals in her last nine Grand Slams. Svitolina also holds a 9-2 record at Wimbledon during that period. She is relatively unlikely to be upset at this stage – over the past year, her record is 3-7 against top-five opponents but 39-9 (an .813 win percentage) against everyone else. She is a projected favorite to reach the round of 16 against, most likely, Sabalenka.

Taylor Fritz

Odds by ESPN BET: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Daniil Medvedev (fourth round)

We`ve discussed tough draws, but Taylor Fritz likely feels good about his. Granted, it includes big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and could feature No. 26 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (his semifinal opponent this week at Eastbourne) in the third and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth. But Fritz landed in Alexander Zverev`s quarter, and he has a 5-0 record against Zverev over the past year. If Fritz navigates tricky early tests, he is in a favorable quarter for a deep run.

Alexander Bublik

Odds by ESPN BET: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (third round)

Apparently, falling out of the ATP top 50 served as a wake-up call for the unpredictable Bublik, who won nine of his last eleven matches during the clay season, then defeated four consecutive top-25 opponents, including Sinner and Medvedev, to win on grass in Halle last week. He is capable of beating anyone in the field, or losing to anyone, and could pose a significant third-round challenge for Draper in what might be the most intriguing potential match of the first week in the men`s draw.

Barbora Krejcikova

Odds by ESPN BET: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round)

Barbora Krejcikova, one of the era`s greatest doubles players (with seven Grand Slam doubles titles), is always an unpredictable presence in singles draws. In her last twelve Grand Slams, she has won only twenty matches overall, but seven of those came during her Wimbledon run last year. She has played only six matches this year due to injury and had to withdraw from Eastbourne this week with a thigh issue. Her chances of a deep run aren`t high, but if she can build momentum, watch out.

Lorenzo Musetti

Odds by ESPN BET: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Ben Shelton (fourth round)

It has been a quietly excellent 52 weeks for the 23-year-old Italian. Musetti has reached the semifinals in two of his last four Grand Slams – Wimbledon last year and the French Open this year – and made the semifinals or better in three consecutive 1000-level events. In his last five tournaments, his only losses have come against Djokovic, Alcaraz, or Draper. Landing in Sinner`s quarter wasn`t ideal, but Musetti is projected to reach the quarterfinals, at minimum.

Others: Daniil Medvedev (2023-24 semifinalist, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (2024 quarterfinalist, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Jabeur (2022-23 finalist, +5000), Emma Navarro (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Alex de Minaur (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (2021 semifinalist, +6600), Tommy Paul (2024 quarterfinalist, +6600), Donna Vekic (2024 semifinalist, 100-1), Tatjana Maria (2022 semifinalist, 100-1), Denis Shapovalov (2021 semifinalist, 100-1), Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semifinalist, 100-1), Cameron Norrie (2022 semifinalist, 300-1), Lulu Sun (2024 quarterfinalist, 300-1), Marin Cilic (2017 semifinalist, 400-1), Matteo Berrettini (2021 finalist), Petra Kvitova (2011 and 2014 champion)

Waiting for a Breakthrough

Naomi Osaka

Odds by ESPN BET: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Qinwen Zheng (second round)

According to Tennis Abstract`s Elo rankings, which assess performance quality rather than tournament points, Naomi Osaka is currently ranked 31st globally. This is clearly below her standards before motherhood, but still quite good. However, because Grand Slams award significant WTA ranking points, and she consistently faces tough draws, she is only ranked 56th in the official rankings. In each of her last six Grand Slams, Osaka has had to play a top-20 opponent by the second round. She nearly defeated Swiatek at the 2024 French Open, then comfortably beat No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko at the US Open, only to encounter a strong former top-10 player, Karolina Muchova, in the following round. She overcame Muchova at the Australian Open but withdrew from the next round due to injury. She took Paula Badosa deep into the third set at the French Open but ultimately lost. Was her Wimbledon draw any kinder? Not really. She is likely to face No. 5 Qinwen Zheng in the second round. While she has split nine sets with Zheng throughout their careers, she lost their only meeting on grass, which has historically not been her best surface. The quest for a breakthrough performance will likely continue into the hard-court season.

Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)

American Sleepers

Amanda Anisimova

Odds by ESPN BET: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round)

After taking most of 2023 off the tour, Amanda Anisimova climbed back into the top 40 in 2024 and has seen a surge in 2025. She won her first 1000-level title in Doha and enters Wimbledon having won nine of her last eleven matches (six of eight on grass). With powerful groundstrokes and a strong return game, she could be a threat in Paolini`s quarter, at least if she navigates a challenging first-round match against Yulia Putintseva.

Ben Shelton

Odds by ESPN BET: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)

It`s tempting to think, `Big serve? Good on grass!` But that`s somewhat of an outdated view, and the 22-year-old Shelton has yet to master the surface: His career grass record is just 8-10, and he comes into Wimbledon having lost three consecutive matches. Nevertheless, a run to the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2024 suggests potential, and a hypothetical fourth-round match against Musetti (with the winner facing Sinner) would be incredibly exciting.

Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Krueger (100-1), Frances Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)

The Youngsters

Jakub Mensik

Odds by ESPN BET: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (fourth round)

The hard-hitting 19-year-old was one of the few male players to truly capitalize on Jannik Sinner`s three-month spring absence, surging past Fritz and Djokovic to claim the 1000-level Miami title. He has gone only 8-7 since then (2-2 on grass), but the core elements of his game are solid, and a relatively favorable draw could give him a decent chance of reaching at least the fourth round.

Learner Tien

Odds by ESPN BET: 300-1 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (second round)

Learner Tien may not possess the raw power of fellow teenagers Mensik or Joao Fonseca, but his accurate left-handed shots and often excellent service return make him a difficult opponent. And he has surprisingly strong results against top players – his record in 2025 is just 17-16 overall, but he is 3-1 against top-10 opponents with wins over Medvedev (Australian Open), Zverev (Acapulco), and, on grass, Shelton (Mallorca). He could have an opportunity for a fourth top-10 victory against Rune in the second round.

Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)