PARIS — One aspect of professional tennis has maintained its simplicity: the coin toss.
While digital methods are used in some events, most tournaments still employ a physical coin to decide who serves first and which side of the court the opposing player will start from. Heads or tails, serve or receive – it seems like a simple decision.
However, it`s not quite that straightforward.
In his book `Winning Ugly`, renowned coach Brad Gilbert suggests that choosing to receive first is the psychologically advantageous option. Gilbert, who coached players like Andre Agassi and Coco Gauff, argues that if a player opts to serve and is immediately broken, they find themselves at a disadvantage from the start. Conversely, if a player chooses to receive and doesn`t break serve, they haven`t lost any ground and gain a game`s worth of match experience before serving themselves.
Various factors can influence a player`s decision, including weather conditions, the specific opponent, the court surface, and how the player feels on a particular day. Some players even choose an end of the court rather than making the serve/receive decision.
Novak Djokovic commented that his approach has evolved over his career.
“At the beginning of my career, even though I really liked my chances when I`m serving, I was relying more on the return. So if I got the coin toss, I would always choose to return,” Djokovic explained in Paris. “But the last, I don`t know, 10 years, I would be only choosing to serve.”
“I just feel that sets a tone in some way. You also send a message to your opponent like, `Hey, I`m not afraid to start serving,` start the match with this kind of a right statement. Sometimes I start slow, and I lose my first service games, and then you start to question your decision-making. But regardless of that, I still feel like it`s important. It`s important for your own confidence and to send the message to your opponent as well.”
British player Jodie Burrage mentioned that the coin toss choice is a frequent topic among players.
“I always choose tails. I used to serve, but now receive,” she said. “I just think it gives me a game to get into things. I can hurt them first game if they start a little slow. If I start a little slow, it gives me a game to get into my serve.”
Players with strong serves, like Djokovic, often prefer to serve first, aiming to hold their serve and then potentially break quickly to build an early lead.
Greece`s Stefanos Tsitsipas shared his perspective:
“It depends on the opponent [but] I preferably choose serve,” Tsitsipas told ESPN. “When I start a match, I want to serve. But there are also times where if I see the body language of my opponent, if he`s slightly stressed, or if I feel much nicer with my return game in that particular part of the year, I`ll probably choose return.”
“I don`t think it actually decides a match, in my opinion. Of course, if you think about it from a mathematical way, if you manage to break on the second game of the match, you have higher chances of going 3-0 up then than if you actually start the match by receiving, which would end up in a 2-1 lead, so mathematically, you`re just closer to a set if you start serving.”
Statistical analysis from the first two Grand Slam events of the year indicates that in the initial rounds, a significant majority of players who win the toss opt to receive.
At the Australian Open first round: 43 women chose to receive, 21 to serve. Of those serving, nine were broken. Of those receiving, 12 achieved a break. For the men: 43 received, 21 served. Only four servers were broken, while three receivers managed a break.
The trend was strikingly similar at this year`s French Open. In the men`s first round, 19 players chose to serve (six were broken), while 43 chose to receive (six achieved a break). In the women`s first round, 21 served first (11 were broken), and 41 received (21 managed a break).
Interestingly, as tournaments advance into later rounds, the preference shifts, and the number of players choosing to serve first becomes much closer to those choosing to receive. At the Australian Open, the ratio was nearly even in Rounds 2, 3, and 4. In Paris, it was close in Round 2 and 4, though more men received in Round 3, perhaps influenced by the clay surface. In the women`s round of 16 at Roland Garros, six out of eight players who won the toss chose to serve.
Some players known for their powerful serves choose to receive, believing they can hold their own serve easily anyway and might surprise their opponent early. Reilly Opelka, one of the tallest players on tour, chose to receive in both his matches at Roland Garros this year.
Conversely, players like Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, who have sometimes faced challenges with their serve, often choose to serve first as a standard practice. Madison Keys, who won the Australian Open this year, generally prefers to receive but remains flexible.
“Sometimes I like to receive just because I think coming out and serving first, sometimes there`s some nerves,” Keys explained. “I think there`s a lot of opportunity that you can get up an early break, potentially.”
“[But] honestly, it kind of just depends. I`ve served first [as in a recent match], I`ve returned first. It doesn`t truly matter. But I think sometimes I kind of like the opportunity to just really get some good swings and some good hits before I have to serve first.”
Former US Open champion Sam Stosur, whose serve was a major weapon, stated she almost always played to her strength:
“I served first for 99 percent of my career,” she said. “It was only the last maybe year or so where I was like, `Oh, maybe I should change things up and return every now and then.` It depended on the day, the opponent, how I was feeling. But usually I never ever entertained not serving first.”
Daria Kasatkina, who recently changed allegiance to Australia, and Alex de Minaur, Australia`s top male player, both typically choose to receive.
“I normally always choose to receive just to apply pressure from the very first game,” De Minaur said. “But since I know it`s very common among players, especially on the clay [to receive], I also make sure whenever I can in practice matches to serve first sometimes just to make sure I`m used to it.”
There is a less common option: allowing the opponent to choose. Croatian Marin Cilic used this strategy in his first-round match against Flavio Cobolli at Roland Garros. Cobolli chose to receive, and Cilic successfully held his serve.
This move is primarily psychological, and Jodie Burrage admitted it would unnerve her.
“I think if someone would give me the choice, I`d be like, `Wow,`” the Briton commented. “No, no. I`ve never had that happen to me, thankfully.”
Ultimately, the decision to serve or receive first is a subtle strategic choice in tennis, influenced by individual preferences, opponent analysis, and match conditions, adding another layer of complexity to the sport despite the simple flip of a coin.
Marcus Bellamy