Fresh off their French Open victories just three weeks prior, Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz arrive at Wimbledon as top contenders, with the tournament set to commence on Monday.
Alcaraz, the two-time reigning champion at the All England Club, aims for a historic third consecutive title. Could he join an elite group, or will Jannik Sinner, whom he defeated in the French Open final, claim his maiden grass-court Grand Slam?
Coco Gauff enters Wimbledon having secured her second major title, yet she has never advanced beyond the fourth round here. The women`s draw appears particularly open, highlighted by a different champion in each of the last eight tournaments.
Will Aryna Sabalenka finally lift the Wimbledon trophy? Can Iga Swiatek rebound from a challenging season to claim the crown? And what are the chances for Novak Djokovic to achieve a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Our panel of experts shares their insights on these key questions and other potential storylines.
How will Gauff fare after her French Open success?
D’Arcy Maine: Gauff arrives at Wimbledon, an event where she has been widely embraced since her breakout in 2019, with boosted confidence. She is certainly capable of achieving her best result here. However, it won`t be easy. Despite her impressive debut six years ago reaching the fourth round, she hasn`t surpassed that stage and lost in her sole grass-court warm-up event in Berlin this month.
Crucially, she is in a very difficult quarter of the draw and could face numerous challenging opponents. These include Dayana Yastremska in the first round, potential second and third-round encounters with former Australian Open champions Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin (who upset her at Wimbledon in 2023), grass specialist Liudmila Samsonova in the fourth round, and either five-time major winner Iga Swiatek or 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals. That`s a formidable path, and honestly, just listing it is exhausting. While Gauff could potentially win all those matches, securing her third major title during the fortnight seems unlikely.
Bill Connelly: Gauff has certainly reached a level where winning any tournament wouldn`t be a surprise. Her defense and speed are consistently elite, as is her knack for grinding out wins when things get tough. But her draw is full of potential upsets, and her grass record over the past two years is only 9-6. Including her initial upset of Venus Williams six years ago, she`s just 7-9 all-time against top-50 players on grass, with three consecutive losses. She`ll likely need to overcome three top-50 opponents just to reach Rybakina or Swiatek in the quarterfinals. That feels like a considerable challenge.
Simon Cambers: This could go either way. Gauff might arrive at Wimbledon feeling unstoppable, buoyed by her Roland Garros triumph, or she could be mentally exhausted and exit early. It’s a curious situation. In one sense, winning the French Open should fill her with confidence, and she’ll undoubtedly carry herself taller after succeeding in Paris. However, I also feel she didn`t consistently play her best tennis at Roland Garros, and while her ability to win even when not at her peak is a strength, on grass – where the ball moves faster than on clay – she’ll have less time to adjust if her game falters.
If her serve is strong, she’ll give herself a real chance, as she moves exceptionally well and competes fiercely. But her draw is very tough; Dayana Yastremska is a difficult first opponent, Sofia Kenin or Taylor Townsend could be tricky in the third round, followed by Daria Kasatkina in the fourth, and then Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina would be incredibly tough in the quarters. If she can make it to the second week, she’ll be hard to beat, but getting there will be challenging.
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Who holds the edge if they meet?
D’Arcy Maine: At this point, I`m leaning towards recent history and picking Alcaraz. He leads their career head-to-head 8-4, including victories in their last five meetings. Sinner hasn`t defeated Alcaraz on any surface or in any round since 2023, and he has only beaten him once (three years ago) with a title at stake.
Sinner is the world No. 1 for good reason and can overcome anyone else, but Alcaraz currently seems to be his kryptonite. At least for now. (I`ll save my Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova comparison for another time.) Given Alcaraz is the two-time defending Wimbledon champion and just won the grass title at Queen`s Club, while Sinner has only reached the semifinals once at the All England Club, the odds certainly feel stacked in Alcaraz’s favor again.
Bill Connelly: Alcaraz certainly hopes it`s him. We seem to be entering an era where he`s the favorite on natural surfaces (French Open, Wimbledon), and Sinner is the favorite on hard courts (US Open, Australian Open). But their French Open final was incredibly close – Sinner won 193 total points to Alcaraz`s 192 – and if Sinner had won just one more key point, we`d be discussing his calendar-year Slam chances and comparing his run to Roger Federer`s 2004-07 dominance.
Alcaraz is definitely the favorite, partly because he`s much more proven on grass and partly because Sinner might have to overcome Djokovic on Djokovic`s best surface and Sinner`s less preferred one. But… Sinner appears to be adapting.
Simon Cambers: Alcaraz possesses the proven track record on grass, having won the title in the last two years, although Sinner did win their only previous meeting on the surface at Wimbledon in 2022. Everything hinges on how quickly Sinner recovers from the events in Paris. He seems the type who can compartmentalize and view that tournament as a positive step forward, even if others might be devastated after failing to convert three match points in a Slam final. However, it’s difficult to see him being at his absolute best again so soon, especially on a surface that can theoretically pose challenges for him.
Alcaraz will also be fatigued, but as he demonstrated at Queen’s, where he won the title after several tight matches, he tends to improve as the tournament progresses. With a favorable draw early on, he can ease into the event and build momentum for the tougher matches later. If they do meet again here, it would be in the final, and you’d have to give Alcaraz the mental advantage simply due to their last encounter in Paris.
Can Djokovic achieve a record 25th Grand Slam title here?
D’Arcy Maine: Can he? Yes. Will he? I`m less certain. But I do believe Wimbledon offers his best opportunity to claim that elusive 25th major title, thanks to his unparalleled success here and his experience on grass, a surface that still challenges many younger players. His path to a potential seventh consecutive final could be difficult, with British favorite Jack Draper as a possible quarterfinal opponent and Sinner as his likely semifinal foe. However, even though Sinner defeated him at the same stage in Paris, this meeting would feel much more balanced on grass. And if Djokovic were to advance, he could set up the ultimate rematch with Alcaraz.
Djokovic will have no shortage of motivation, and perhaps, just perhaps, he could deliver a performance akin to his gold medal match victory against Alcaraz at the Paris Olympics last year. Given his hints about retiring in the near future, I can`t envision a more perfect farewell for Djokovic at his favorite and most revered major.
Bill Connelly: Considering Alcaraz seems to have surpassed him on grass (last year`s Wimbledon final was quite a dominant performance from Alcaraz), and given he`ll likely need to defeat both Sinner and Alcaraz, it feels like a demanding task. But if it`s going to happen, it will happen at Wimbledon. I was quite impressed with Djokovic`s performance at Roland Garros. It wasn`t just that he reached the semifinals – he made the quarters the year before with a torn meniscus. It was his excellent rhythm from the start of the tournament. He won four matches without dropping a set and convincingly handled Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. He couldn`t find a way to take a set from an in-form Sinner, but on grass, he might uncover an extra edge or two.
Simon Cambers: It’s his best chance, for sure. I thought Djokovic actually played very well against Sinner in the Paris semifinals, but on that surface, with just that crucial split second more time for Sinner to unleash his powerful groundstrokes, it simply wasn`t feasible for Djokovic at 38. Grass provides Djokovic with a greater advantage; not only does he move better than most on it, but his serve, still surprisingly undervalued, gets more traction and becomes even more effective.
Motivation will be higher at Wimbledon than anywhere else. It’s only been a year since Djokovic reached the final, and that was after just undergoing knee surgery. There`s little difference between being 37 and 38, and he knows better than anyone what is required. Another victory would secure Slam No. 25, but also equal Roger Federer`s eight Wimbledon titles, which I`m sure would bring him immense satisfaction. However, in addition to conceding over 15 years to two of the fittest players globally, his main challenge now is that he will probably need to overcome both Sinner and Alcaraz to win it, alongside Draper in the quarterfinals. That is likely asking too much.
Who could be the dark horse or surprise player this year?
D’Arcy Maine: I wish I could mention surprise French Open semifinalist Lois Boisson, but she fell in the first round of qualifying because, well, that`s tennis. However, several under-the-radar players are capable of causing big upsets and making deep runs. It feels odd to name someone who won the title just two years ago, but Marketa Vondrousova is unseeded – just like in 2023 – and was sidelined for a significant part of the spring due to a shoulder injury. Yet, she thrives on grass and won her first title since her Wimbledon triumph this month in Berlin with several impressive victories. She might face Sabalenka in the third round, but she comfortably beat her 6-2, 6-4 in the Berlin semifinals and could certainly do it again.
An honorable mention goes to Alexandra Eala, who reached the Eastbourne final this week and could potentially stun defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (who withdrew from Eastbourne with a thigh injury) in the first round.
Bill Connelly: On the men`s side, my attention immediately goes to Zverev`s quarter, which seems the most likely section to produce a surprise contender. Taylor Fritz has a decent draw if he can overcome big-serving Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard in the first round, and if Matteo Berrettini can regain his form, this is the place for it. But I`ll go with Gabriel Diallo. The 23-year-old Canadian won at Hertogenbosch, defeating three top-40 players, and his straight-sets win over Francisco Cerundolo at the French Open hinted at his powerful, versatile game. He`ll need to beat Fritz in the second round for a significant run, but he has the potential.
On the women`s side, Jasmine Paolini`s quarter is probably the most likely for an upset, and… I apologize, but I can`t resist. I`m going to keep predicting Naomi Osaka to make a run until it happens. Grass isn`t her strongest surface, and she again received a tough draw – she might face No. 5 Zheng Qinwen in the second round. She`s lost four consecutive matches against top-20 opponents, but three of those went deep into the third set. She is very close to a breakthrough.
Simon Cambers: I`m choosing Berrettini. I know he`s a former finalist at Wimbledon, but he`s been plagued by injuries since and hasn`t been able to build momentum. If he can avoid another injury, which is a big “if,” he`s in Zverev`s section, a winnable match for him that could propel him into the last eight. There, a potential match against Fritz would give him a genuine opportunity to reach the semifinals again.
Which first-round matches are the most intriguing?
Bill Connelly: `Joao Fonseca versus anyone` is usually compelling viewing, and the 18-year-old Fonseca drew an interesting opponent in Jacob Fearnley, who is a strong returner and gave Djokovic a good test in the second round last year. Also, Fritz against Mpetschi Perricard should deliver plenty of explosive tennis. On the women`s side, Kenin faces Townsend (they have split two straight-sets wins each), and we have a matchup of recent grass champions with Vondrousova against McCartney Kessler. Vondrousova obviously has more Grand Slam experience and looked outstanding winning Berlin last week, but Kessler also defeated four top-50 players to win Nottingham. She appears very comfortable on grass and nearly beat Zheng at Queen`s Club.
Simon Cambers: I`m also anticipating the battle between Fonseca and Fearnley. Both players have risen significantly in the rankings this year, and Fearnley’s excellent attitude is taking him far. But Fonseca has already demonstrated the talent to reach the top if things align for him. While his grass-court experience is limited, he possesses power, composure, and strong self-belief. My second pick is the all-American clash between Kenin and Townsend. Kenin is the favorite based on current form, but with her tricky lefty serve and skillful hands, Townsend has a game that can truly unsettle her on grass. Additionally, she won three qualifying matches to enter the main draw, so she has momentum.
D’Arcy Maine: Is it just me, or does it feel like there are an unusual number of marquee opening-round matchups? I mentioned the Eala-Krejcikova match earlier, and that remains a must-watch for me. Sentimentally, however, it`s hard not to highlight what could potentially be Petra Kvitova`s final Wimbledon match. The two-time champion has announced her retirement later this season and is scheduled to play No. 10 seed Emma Navarro in the opening round. If anyone can find some last-minute Wimbledon magic, it has to be Kvitova, and this match has the potential to be memorable. On the men`s side, I agree with Simon and Bill: the Fonseca-Fearnley clash could be epic, and the fans will undoubtedly turn out in large numbers for both players, regardless of the court they`re assigned to.
Marcus Bellamy